What is a solar mounting system
Publish Time：2022-09-01
Sources：
What is a solar mount system
The solar bracket is called the "skeleton" of the photovoltaic power station, and it is a special structure designed and installed in the photovoltaic power generation system to support, fix and rotate the photovoltaic modules. In order to achieve the best power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, the solar bracket needs to combine the topography, climate and solar energy resource conditions of the construction site, and fix the photovoltaic modules in a certain orientation, arrangement and spacing. The solar bracket is located in the middle reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain. The upstream is steel and other metal materials and electromechanical components, and the downstream is the photovoltaic power station.
With the reduction of high-quality sites for building photovoltaic power plants, more and more photovoltaic power plants are built in areas with harsh environments (such as deserts, Gobi, lakes, farmland, tidal flats) and uneven land (such as mountains and hills). The stability and reliability of the stent put forward higher requirements. At the same time, in the context of the gradual decline of photovoltaic subsidies, the upgrade of solar brackets has also become an important means for photovoltaic power plants to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Solar brackets can be divided into two categories: fixed brackets and solar tracking brackets. The fixed brackets are mainly composed of columns, main beams, purlins, foundations and other components, and can be further subdivided into seasonal adjustable brackets, double-column brackets, and single-column brackets. Class; tracking bracket is mainly composed of three parts: structural system (rotatable bracket), drive system, control system (including communication control box, sensor, cloud platform, electric control box and other components), which can be further subdivided into flat single-axis tracking bracket , Oblique uniaxial tracking bracket and other small categories.
Comparison of Tracking Brackets and Fixed Brackets
From the perspective of the production process of the bracket, the tracking bracket needs to add two additional links: electronic control design and drive design, and electrical specifications and software design need to be considered in the design; solar fixed brackets need to consider two aspects of address and land reuse.
In terms of power generation efficiency, the photovoltaic system using tracking brackets can automatically adjust the orientation of its components according to the lighting conditions, which can reduce the angle between the components and the direct sunlight, and obtain more solar radiation, which can effectively improve the power generation efficiency.
In terms of cost, the cost of the tracking bracket is significantly higher than that of the fixed bracket, and the increased cost includes additional hardware parts, such as structural system (rotatable bracket), drive system, control system (communication control box, sensor, cloud platform, electric control box) and other components), etc., and also include some soft costs, such as larger floor space, higher operation and maintenance requirements, etc.
On the whole, the fixed bracket has disadvantages in power generation efficiency, strong wind resistance (fixed windward area), etc., but has advantages in stability, cost, cable investment, operation and maintenance (small workload, easy board cleaning), etc. On the contrary, the tracking bracket has relative advantages in improving power generation efficiency and facilitating the integration of bifacial modules, but also has problems such as high cost investment and stability.
The difference in power generation efficiency between the two types of solar brackets
Tracking brackets include flat single-axis tracking brackets and inclined single-axis tracking brackets. The flat single-axis is suitable for low-latitude regions, and the inclined single-axis is suitable for high-latitude regions. Generally speaking, the flat single-axis is more cost-effective. Compared with traditional fixed solar mounts, flat single-axis tracking mounts can generally bring 15-20% increase in power generation to photovoltaic power plants. Power generation increased.
Although the theoretical calculation results show that the tracking stent has a good effect in most regions of the world, in fact, the scope of application of the tracking stent is limited. The first factor to consider is light resources. Generally speaking, tracking brackets have better power generation gains in areas with abundant light resources and high utilization hours. Because for a certain power photovoltaic power generation system, if the percentage of power generation increase is the same, the higher the utilization hours, the greater the increased power generation value. Judging from the actual shipments of global tracking brackets, regions with a high proportion of shipments highly overlap with regions with high photovoltaic utilization hours, such as the United States, Latin America, Australia, the Middle East, North Africa, and southern Europe (Spain, Italy), etc.
Terrain and latitude also affect the suitability of the solar tracking mount. The stability of the mechanical structure is the prerequisite for the tracking bracket to function. Therefore, the more complex the terrain, the more difficult the design, construction, and operation and maintenance of the tracking bracket are. At the same time, the influence of latitude on the applicability of the tracking bracket cannot be ignored. In the low latitude area, the sunlight is close to vertical incidence, and the tracking bracket only needs to rotate and track in the east-west direction, that is, a flat single-axis tracking system. In high latitude regions, the angle of incidence of the sun has a large inclination. If you want to achieve a better power generation effect, you need to face the battery module to the south (take the northern hemisphere as an example) and place it at a fixed angle, and then let the rotation axis Rotational tracking is performed in the east-west direction, that is, an oblique single-axis tracking system. Compared with the flat single-axis tracking system, the inclined single-axis tracking system has a more complex structure, and in order to avoid occlusion, its footprint will be significantly increased.
Cost comparison of two types of stents
From the cost side, compared with the solar fixed bracket, the structure of the solar tracking bracket system is more complicated, and the investment cost is relatively higher. According to the disclosure of CITIC Bo's prospectus, the cost per watt of CITIC Bo tracking brackets from 2017 to 2019 is 0.56/0.53/0.50 yuan, which is about twice that of fixed brackets, mainly due to the difference in raw material costs. According to the statistics of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States, the investment per watt of a 100MW photovoltaic ground-based power station using a flat single-axis tracking system in the United States in 2020 is about 1.01 US dollars, which is 7% higher than that of the fixed bracket system, which corresponds to about 4 US dollars. points/W.
Judging from the cost difference between the two types of stents at home and abroad, the cost of domestic tracking stents is currently high, and there is still a lot of room for cost reduction.
Economics of Tracking Brackets Instead of Fixed Brackets
According to the calculation of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS), compared with the benchmark case of fixed support + single-sided modules, photovoltaic systems using tracking support can achieve more than 10% LCOE reduction in most parts of the world, and single-axis tracking support + The bifacial module solution can achieve the lowest LCOE in 93.1% of the world's regions.
Specifically, whether to choose a tracking bracket in a photovoltaic system depends on whether the increased power generation revenue can cover the new initial investment cost, and the increased power generation revenue can be divided into system power × utilization hours × power generation gain Amplitude × electricity price. On this basis, the Northeast Securities Research Institute has quantitatively calculated the profitability of domestic tracking brackets instead of fixed brackets. The specific assumptions and calculation results are as follows:
(1) Additional initial cost of tracking brackets to replace fixed brackets: Referring to the data disclosed in CITIC Bo’s prospectus, the average price per watt of the company’s tracking brackets in the past three years is roughly 0.70 yuan/W, and the average price per watt of fixed brackets is about 0.30 yuan/W, based on this, it is assumed that the price difference between the two in the base case is 0.40 yuan/W;
(2) Utilization hours and electricity price: Assuming that the annual utilization hours of the I/II/III resource areas are 1600/1300/1100 hours, respectively, and the base electricity price is 0.25/0.30/0.35 yuan/kWh;
(3) Assuming that the life cycle of the photovoltaic power station is 20 years, the power generation gain of the tracking bracket compared with the fixed bracket is 10% under the baseline assumption.
The calculation results show that, under the baseline assumption that the additional initial investment cost is 0.40 yuan/W and the power generation gain is 10%, the internal rate of return for the tracking bracket to replace the fixed bracket in the I/II/III resource area is relatively ideal. 7.8%/7.4%/7.3% respectively. With the continuous iteration of technologies and algorithms, the additional cost of tracking brackets will be further reduced in the future, the gain in power generation will be further improved, and the economy of tracking brackets replacing fixed brackets is expected to be further improved.
Market development and scale
Track the development of stents globally and domestically
The solar mounting market demand depends on the newly installed capacity of the global photovoltaic power generation market. According to IHS Markit data, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world in 2018 was 103.04GW. According to the average growth rate, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the world will reach 159.94GW by 2023, with a five-year average compound growth rate of more than 9.19%. The market space is relatively large. large and continue to grow. (Predictive data from IHS Marki's "IHS: PV Installations Tracker Premium: Q1 2019" published in March 2019)
At present, the fixed bracket occupies the majority of the market share in the solar bracket market due to its excellent stability and low upfront investment cost. With the improvement of the reliability of the tracking bracket, the reduction of the cost of construction, and the trend of photovoltaic grid parity forcing power station investors to pay more attention to power generation efficiency and other factors, the application of photovoltaic tracking brackets has become more and more popular in recent years. According to GTM Research data, the global tracking bracket accounted for 16% of ground photovoltaic power plants in 2017, and it is expected that by 2023, the proportion of tracking brackets will increase to 42%.
The large-scale application of tracking brackets started in the United States. At present, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in ground power stations in the United States has reached more than 70%. For regions outside China and the United States, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in ground power stations is only 30%. . From the perspective of global market application, the Americas is still the main market for photovoltaic tracking brackets, accounting for more than half of the global demand for tracking brackets, of which the United States is the largest market for tracking brackets in the world. However, in recent years, many emerging photovoltaic markets, especially in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Australia and Africa, have also seen a rapid increase in the demand for tracking brackets.
In the domestic market, fixed brackets still occupy a large market share in my country's solar bracket market for a long time. According to Bloomberg statistics, in 2016, only 1.2% of all photovoltaic projects in my country installed tracking brackets. The main reasons are as follows: First, the early tracking bracket technology was not mature enough, and the stability and reliability were not high, which made domestic photovoltaic power station investors prefer fixed brackets; second, the benchmark electricity price was high at that time, and the return on investment of power stations using fixed brackets was already high. meet or exceed expected returns.
In recent years, as the cost of photovoltaic tracking brackets has been reduced, reliability and stability have been widely verified, domestic subsidy policies have been continuously adjusted, photovoltaic power plant owners and EPCs have more refined management of photovoltaic power plant revenue, and the use of tracking brackets has become a way to improve photovoltaic power plant revenue. one of the important measures. In particular, the implementation of the National Energy Administration's "Photovoltaic Power Generation Leader Program" project, in order to achieve system efficiency and maximize power station revenue, as well as the integration of double-sided modules, intelligent control and other technologies, the application of tracking brackets has also been continuously promoted in my country. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the CCID Think Tank Institute of Integrated Circuits, in 2019, China's photovoltaic power station market tracking bracket accounted for 16%, far below the global average. According to the Global PV Tracker Market Report-2020 (IHS's latest tracking bracket report), among the ground projects with global tracking brackets >1MW, the installed capacity of tracking brackets in China accounts for 5.0%, and the installed capacity of overseas tracking brackets accounts for 49.8%. According to the forecast of China Photovoltaic Industry Association and CCID Think Tank Integrated Circuit Research Institute in March 2020, by 2025, the proportion of tracking brackets will rise to more than 25%.
According to the calculation of the Northeast Securities Research Institute, the global tracking bracket shipments will reach 120GW in 2025, and the market size will reach 68.5 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 25% during 2020-2025.
(1) Applicable scenarios: Tracking brackets are mainly suitable for large-scale power plants with simple terrain. In 2019, concentrated power plants accounted for 59% of the global total photovoltaic installed capacity. Based on this data, it is assumed that the proportion of centralized power stations in photovoltaic installations in various regions will stabilize at 60% in the future.
(2) Tracking bracket penetration rate: At present, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in U.S. ground power stations is about 70%. Comparing with the United States, it is assumed that the penetration rate of tracking brackets in other parts of the world will reach 60% in 2025.
(3) Unit price of tracking brackets: According to Wood Mackenzie’s calculations, the average price per watt of global tracking brackets from 2017 to 2019 was US$0.124/0.121/0.113, equivalent to RMB 0.84/0.81/0.78.
At present, the domestic proportion of the tracking bracket industry is only about 10%, which is far lower than the main link of photovoltaics. In addition, the threshold for tracking stents is high, and the pattern is relatively concentrated compared with the stent industry. The leading technology and cost advantages are significant, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved.
Market Structural Characteristics of Tracking Brackets
From the perspective of the global market, the main manufacturers of tracking stents have obvious territorial characteristics, their penetration abroad is not high, and there is a fragmentation of market areas to a certain extent. The reasons for this phenomenon mainly include the following aspects:
(1) Unlike components and inverter products with a high degree of standardization, the tracking bracket has a high degree of customization, and needs to be designed according to the local conditions of the project. Therefore, local manufacturers are in terms of customer contact, personnel deployment, etc. has a greater advantage.
(2) Tracking brackets need to meet a series of architectural, mechanical, electrical standards and specifications, and different regions have different certification standards for tracking bracket products, such as German TÜV certification, European CE certification, American UL certification, American ETL certification, etc. Only after passing the certification, the product can enter the corresponding market, and the period for obtaining the certification is relatively long, and the qualification requirements for the manufacturer are relatively high.
(3) The life cycle of solar brackets is long. Generally, a ten-year warranty period for the structural part and a five-year warranty period for the mechanical and electrical parts are adopted. Timely and comprehensive after-sales service is an important consideration for customers when choosing a supplier, which often requires a large number of localized after-sales services. team.
(4) The transportation cost of the tracking bracket can not be ignored. According to the disclosure in the prospectus of CITIC Bo, the transportation cost of CITIC Bo from 2017 to 2019 is 0.58/0.89/112 million yuan respectively, which is 1.50/1.98/ per MW. 20,900 yuan, accounting for 3.7%/4.3%/4.9% of the average selling price of products. The increase in transportation costs is closely related to the increase in the company's overseas sales.
Pricing for solar mounts
In terms of pricing, the pricing methods of tracking brackets and fixed brackets are basically the same, that is, to collect project information, carry out customized design and calculate costs, and at the same time consider transportation costs, market competition and other factors, and negotiate pricing with customers. On the whole, the unit sales price of the bracket is basically stable, and there is little difference in the price of each manufacturer.
In the long run, under the background of technological progress and scale effect, the unit price of stents shows a downward trend. With the continuous improvement of module power, it directly reduces the consumption of solar brackets in each MW power station project (the weight of steel consumption, the number of inputs such as drive and electronic control systems), reduces the unit cost of solar brackets, and then forces solar brackets. Manufacturers lower the price of brackets.
However, the increase in the power of the solar bracket and the decrease in the unit price of the solar bracket are not completely linear. The reduction in the unit price of the solar bracket is much lower than the increase in the power of the solar bracket. Increase, the load of the bracket increases, thereby increasing the consumption of steel and the cost of the rotary deceleration device, increasing the unit cost of the solar bracket. On the other hand, the unit price of solar brackets is affected by multiple factors. In addition to cost input, it is also affected by factors such as subdivided product structure (tracking, proportion of fixed brackets), delivery time, and supply and demand. In recent years, the market share of tracking brackets has increased, and the unit consumption of drive and electronic control systems has increased, which also provides strong support for the unit price of solar brackets.
The solar bracket is called the "skeleton" of the photovoltaic power station, and it is a special structure designed and installed in the photovoltaic power generation system to support, fix and rotate the photovoltaic modules. In order to achieve the best power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, the solar bracket needs to combine the topography, climate and solar energy resource conditions of the construction site, and fix the photovoltaic modules in a certain orientation, arrangement and spacing. The solar bracket is located in the middle reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain. The upstream is steel and other metal materials and electromechanical components, and the downstream is the photovoltaic power station.
With the reduction of high-quality sites for building photovoltaic power plants, more and more photovoltaic power plants are built in areas with harsh environments (such as deserts, Gobi, lakes, farmland, tidal flats) and uneven land (such as mountains and hills). The stability and reliability of the stent put forward higher requirements. At the same time, in the context of the gradual decline of photovoltaic subsidies, the upgrade of solar brackets has also become an important means for photovoltaic power plants to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
In recent years, solar stents have developed rapidly in terms of technology and market. On the one hand, solar support products are more lightweight and high-strength, and innovate in structure and materials to improve product performance, reduce material weight, and reduce manufacturing costs and transportation costs; on the other hand, the degree of integration and intelligence is increasing. Design, convenient on-site construction and post-operation and maintenance, and the integration of new-generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and big data, the power generation efficiency has been further improved.
Solar brackets can be divided into two categories: fixed brackets and solar tracking brackets. The fixed brackets are mainly composed of columns, main beams, purlins, foundations and other components, and can be further subdivided into seasonal adjustable brackets, double-column brackets, and single-column brackets. Class; tracking bracket is mainly composed of three parts: structural system (rotatable bracket), drive system, control system (including communication control box, sensor, cloud platform, electric control box and other components), which can be further subdivided into flat single-axis tracking bracket , Oblique uniaxial tracking bracket and other small categories.
Comparison of Tracking Brackets and Fixed Brackets
From the perspective of the production process of the bracket, the tracking bracket needs to add two additional links: electronic control design and drive design, and electrical specifications and software design need to be considered in the design; solar fixed brackets need to consider two aspects of address and land reuse.
In terms of power generation efficiency, the photovoltaic system using tracking brackets can automatically adjust the orientation of its components according to the lighting conditions, which can reduce the angle between the components and the direct sunlight, and obtain more solar radiation, which can effectively improve the power generation efficiency.
In terms of cost, the cost of the tracking bracket is significantly higher than that of the fixed bracket, and the increased cost includes additional hardware parts, such as structural system (rotatable bracket), drive system, control system (communication control box, sensor, cloud platform, electric control box) and other components), etc., and also include some soft costs, such as larger floor space, higher operation and maintenance requirements, etc.
On the whole, the fixed bracket has disadvantages in power generation efficiency, strong wind resistance (fixed windward area), etc., but has advantages in stability, cost, cable investment, operation and maintenance (small workload, easy board cleaning), etc. On the contrary, the tracking bracket has relative advantages in improving power generation efficiency and facilitating the integration of bifacial modules, but also has problems such as high cost investment and stability.
The difference in power generation efficiency between the two types of solar brackets
Tracking brackets include flat single-axis tracking brackets and inclined single-axis tracking brackets. The flat single-axis is suitable for low-latitude regions, and the inclined single-axis is suitable for high-latitude regions. Generally speaking, the flat single-axis is more cost-effective. Compared with traditional fixed solar mounts, flat single-axis tracking mounts can generally bring 15-20% increase in power generation to photovoltaic power plants. Power generation increased.
Although the theoretical calculation results show that the tracking stent has a good effect in most regions of the world, in fact, the scope of application of the tracking stent is limited. The first factor to consider is light resources. Generally speaking, tracking brackets have better power generation gains in areas with abundant light resources and high utilization hours. Because for a certain power photovoltaic power generation system, if the percentage of power generation increase is the same, the higher the utilization hours, the greater the increased power generation value. Judging from the actual shipments of global tracking brackets, regions with a high proportion of shipments highly overlap with regions with high photovoltaic utilization hours, such as the United States, Latin America, Australia, the Middle East, North Africa, and southern Europe (Spain, Italy), etc.
Terrain and latitude also affect the suitability of the solar tracking mount. The stability of the mechanical structure is the prerequisite for the tracking bracket to function. Therefore, the more complex the terrain, the more difficult the design, construction, and operation and maintenance of the tracking bracket are. At the same time, the influence of latitude on the applicability of the tracking bracket cannot be ignored. In the low latitude area, the sunlight is close to vertical incidence, and the tracking bracket only needs to rotate and track in the east-west direction, that is, a flat single-axis tracking system. In high latitude regions, the angle of incidence of the sun has a large inclination. If you want to achieve a better power generation effect, you need to face the battery module to the south (take the northern hemisphere as an example) and place it at a fixed angle, and then let the rotation axis Rotational tracking is performed in the east-west direction, that is, an oblique single-axis tracking system. Compared with the flat single-axis tracking system, the inclined single-axis tracking system has a more complex structure, and in order to avoid occlusion, its footprint will be significantly increased.
Cost comparison of two types of stents
From the cost side, compared with the solar fixed bracket, the structure of the solar tracking bracket system is more complicated, and the investment cost is relatively higher. According to the disclosure of CITIC Bo's prospectus, the cost per watt of CITIC Bo tracking brackets from 2017 to 2019 is 0.56/0.53/0.50 yuan, which is about twice that of fixed brackets, mainly due to the difference in raw material costs. According to the statistics of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States, the investment per watt of a 100MW photovoltaic ground-based power station using a flat single-axis tracking system in the United States in 2020 is about 1.01 US dollars, which is 7% higher than that of the fixed bracket system, which corresponds to about 4 US dollars. points/W.
Judging from the cost difference between the two types of stents at home and abroad, the cost of domestic tracking stents is currently high, and there is still a lot of room for cost reduction.
Economics of Tracking Brackets Instead of Fixed Brackets
According to the calculation of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS), compared with the benchmark case of fixed support + single-sided modules, photovoltaic systems using tracking support can achieve more than 10% LCOE reduction in most parts of the world, and single-axis tracking support + The bifacial module solution can achieve the lowest LCOE in 93.1% of the world's regions.
Specifically, whether to choose a tracking bracket in a photovoltaic system depends on whether the increased power generation revenue can cover the new initial investment cost, and the increased power generation revenue can be divided into system power × utilization hours × power generation gain Amplitude × electricity price. On this basis, the Northeast Securities Research Institute has quantitatively calculated the profitability of domestic tracking brackets instead of fixed brackets. The specific assumptions and calculation results are as follows:
(1) Additional initial cost of tracking brackets to replace fixed brackets: Referring to the data disclosed in CITIC Bo’s prospectus, the average price per watt of the company’s tracking brackets in the past three years is roughly 0.70 yuan/W, and the average price per watt of fixed brackets is about 0.30 yuan/W, based on this, it is assumed that the price difference between the two in the base case is 0.40 yuan/W;
(2) Utilization hours and electricity price: Assuming that the annual utilization hours of the I/II/III resource areas are 1600/1300/1100 hours, respectively, and the base electricity price is 0.25/0.30/0.35 yuan/kWh;
(3) Assuming that the life cycle of the photovoltaic power station is 20 years, the power generation gain of the tracking bracket compared with the fixed bracket is 10% under the baseline assumption.
The calculation results show that, under the baseline assumption that the additional initial investment cost is 0.40 yuan/W and the power generation gain is 10%, the internal rate of return for the tracking bracket to replace the fixed bracket in the I/II/III resource area is relatively ideal. 7.8%/7.4%/7.3% respectively. With the continuous iteration of technologies and algorithms, the additional cost of tracking brackets will be further reduced in the future, the gain in power generation will be further improved, and the economy of tracking brackets replacing fixed brackets is expected to be further improved.
Market development and scale
Track the development of stents globally and domestically
The solar mounting market demand depends on the newly installed capacity of the global photovoltaic power generation market. According to IHS Markit data, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world in 2018 was 103.04GW. According to the average growth rate, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the world will reach 159.94GW by 2023, with a five-year average compound growth rate of more than 9.19%. The market space is relatively large. large and continue to grow. (Predictive data from IHS Marki's "IHS: PV Installations Tracker Premium: Q1 2019" published in March 2019)
At present, the fixed bracket occupies the majority of the market share in the solar bracket market due to its excellent stability and low upfront investment cost. With the improvement of the reliability of the tracking bracket, the reduction of the cost of construction, and the trend of photovoltaic grid parity forcing power station investors to pay more attention to power generation efficiency and other factors, the application of photovoltaic tracking brackets has become more and more popular in recent years. According to GTM Research data, the global tracking bracket accounted for 16% of ground photovoltaic power plants in 2017, and it is expected that by 2023, the proportion of tracking brackets will increase to 42%.
The large-scale application of tracking brackets started in the United States. At present, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in ground power stations in the United States has reached more than 70%. For regions outside China and the United States, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in ground power stations is only 30%. . From the perspective of global market application, the Americas is still the main market for photovoltaic tracking brackets, accounting for more than half of the global demand for tracking brackets, of which the United States is the largest market for tracking brackets in the world. However, in recent years, many emerging photovoltaic markets, especially in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Australia and Africa, have also seen a rapid increase in the demand for tracking brackets.
In the domestic market, fixed brackets still occupy a large market share in my country's solar bracket market for a long time. According to Bloomberg statistics, in 2016, only 1.2% of all photovoltaic projects in my country installed tracking brackets. The main reasons are as follows: First, the early tracking bracket technology was not mature enough, and the stability and reliability were not high, which made domestic photovoltaic power station investors prefer fixed brackets; second, the benchmark electricity price was high at that time, and the return on investment of power stations using fixed brackets was already high. meet or exceed expected returns.
In recent years, as the cost of photovoltaic tracking brackets has been reduced, reliability and stability have been widely verified, domestic subsidy policies have been continuously adjusted, photovoltaic power plant owners and EPCs have more refined management of photovoltaic power plant revenue, and the use of tracking brackets has become a way to improve photovoltaic power plant revenue. one of the important measures. In particular, the implementation of the National Energy Administration's "Photovoltaic Power Generation Leader Program" project, in order to achieve system efficiency and maximize power station revenue, as well as the integration of double-sided modules, intelligent control and other technologies, the application of tracking brackets has also been continuously promoted in my country. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the CCID Think Tank Institute of Integrated Circuits, in 2019, China's photovoltaic power station market tracking bracket accounted for 16%, far below the global average. According to the Global PV Tracker Market Report-2020 (IHS's latest tracking bracket report), among the ground projects with global tracking brackets >1MW, the installed capacity of tracking brackets in China accounts for 5.0%, and the installed capacity of overseas tracking brackets accounts for 49.8%. According to the forecast of China Photovoltaic Industry Association and CCID Think Tank Integrated Circuit Research Institute in March 2020, by 2025, the proportion of tracking brackets will rise to more than 25%.
According to the calculation of the Northeast Securities Research Institute, the global tracking bracket shipments will reach 120GW in 2025, and the market size will reach 68.5 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 25% during 2020-2025.
(1) Applicable scenarios: Tracking brackets are mainly suitable for large-scale power plants with simple terrain. In 2019, concentrated power plants accounted for 59% of the global total photovoltaic installed capacity. Based on this data, it is assumed that the proportion of centralized power stations in photovoltaic installations in various regions will stabilize at 60% in the future.
(2) Tracking bracket penetration rate: At present, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in U.S. ground power stations is about 70%. Comparing with the United States, it is assumed that the penetration rate of tracking brackets in other parts of the world will reach 60% in 2025.
(3) Unit price of tracking brackets: According to Wood Mackenzie’s calculations, the average price per watt of global tracking brackets from 2017 to 2019 was US$0.124/0.121/0.113, equivalent to RMB 0.84/0.81/0.78.
At present, the domestic proportion of the tracking bracket industry is only about 10%, which is far lower than the main link of photovoltaics. In addition, the threshold for tracking stents is high, and the pattern is relatively concentrated compared with the stent industry. The leading technology and cost advantages are significant, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved.
Market Structural Characteristics of Tracking Brackets
From the perspective of the global market, the main manufacturers of tracking stents have obvious territorial characteristics, their penetration abroad is not high, and there is a fragmentation of market areas to a certain extent. The reasons for this phenomenon mainly include the following aspects:
(1) Unlike components and inverter products with a high degree of standardization, the tracking bracket has a high degree of customization, and needs to be designed according to the local conditions of the project. Therefore, local manufacturers are in terms of customer contact, personnel deployment, etc. has a greater advantage.
(2) Tracking brackets need to meet a series of architectural, mechanical, electrical standards and specifications, and different regions have different certification standards for tracking bracket products, such as German TÜV certification, European CE certification, American UL certification, American ETL certification, etc. Only after passing the certification, the product can enter the corresponding market, and the period for obtaining the certification is relatively long, and the qualification requirements for the manufacturer are relatively high.
(3) The life cycle of solar brackets is long. Generally, a ten-year warranty period for the structural part and a five-year warranty period for the mechanical and electrical parts are adopted. Timely and comprehensive after-sales service is an important consideration for customers when choosing a supplier, which often requires a large number of localized after-sales services. team.
(4) The transportation cost of the tracking bracket can not be ignored. According to the disclosure in the prospectus of CITIC Bo, the transportation cost of CITIC Bo from 2017 to 2019 is 0.58/0.89/112 million yuan respectively, which is 1.50/1.98/ per MW. 20,900 yuan, accounting for 3.7%/4.3%/4.9% of the average selling price of products. The increase in transportation costs is closely related to the increase in the company's overseas sales.
Pricing for solar mounts
In terms of pricing, the pricing methods of tracking brackets and fixed brackets are basically the same, that is, to collect project information, carry out customized design and calculate costs, and at the same time consider transportation costs, market competition and other factors, and negotiate pricing with customers. On the whole, the unit sales price of the bracket is basically stable, and there is little difference in the price of each manufacturer.
In the long run, under the background of technological progress and scale effect, the unit price of stents shows a downward trend. With the continuous improvement of module power, it directly reduces the consumption of solar brackets in each MW power station project (the weight of steel consumption, the number of inputs such as drive and electronic control systems), reduces the unit cost of solar brackets, and then forces solar brackets. Manufacturers lower the price of brackets.
However, the increase in the power of the solar bracket and the decrease in the unit price of the solar bracket are not completely linear. The reduction in the unit price of the solar bracket is much lower than the increase in the power of the solar bracket. Increase, the load of the bracket increases, thereby increasing the consumption of steel and the cost of the rotary deceleration device, increasing the unit cost of the solar bracket. On the other hand, the unit price of solar brackets is affected by multiple factors. In addition to cost input, it is also affected by factors such as subdivided product structure (tracking, proportion of fixed brackets), delivery time, and supply and demand. In recent years, the market share of tracking brackets has increased, and the unit consumption of drive and electronic control systems has increased, which also provides strong support for the unit price of solar brackets.